This paper reports a verification study for a method that fits functions to sets of data from several experiments simultaneously. The method finds a maximum a posteriori probability estimate of a function subject to constraints (e.g., convexity in the study), uncertainty about the estimate, and a quantitative characterization of how data from each experiment constrains that uncertainty. While this work focuses on a model of the equation of state (EOS) of gasses produced by detonating a high explosive, the method can be applied to a wide range of physics processes with either parametric or semiparametric models. As a verification exercise, a reference EOS is used and artificial experimental data sets are created using numerical integration of ordinary differential equations and pseudo-random noise. The method yields an estimate of the EOS that is close to the reference and identifies how each experiment most constrains the result.
Skip Nav Destination
Article navigation
March 2019
Research-Article
Estimating Physics Models and Quantifying Their Uncertainty Using Optimization With a Bayesian Objective Function
Stephen A. Andrews,
Stephen A. Andrews
Verification and Analysis (XCP-8),
Los Alamos National Laboratory,
Mail Stop P365,
P.O. Box 1663,
Los Alamos, NM 87545
e-mail: saandrews@lanl.gov
Los Alamos National Laboratory,
Mail Stop P365,
P.O. Box 1663,
Los Alamos, NM 87545
e-mail: saandrews@lanl.gov
1Corresponding author.
Search for other works by this author on:
Andrew M. Fraser
Andrew M. Fraser
Verification and Analysis (XCP-8),
Los Alamos National Laboratory,
Mail Stop F644,
P.O. Box 1663,
Los Alamos, NM 87545
e-mail: afraser@lanl.gov
Los Alamos National Laboratory,
Mail Stop F644,
P.O. Box 1663,
Los Alamos, NM 87545
e-mail: afraser@lanl.gov
Search for other works by this author on:
Stephen A. Andrews
Verification and Analysis (XCP-8),
Los Alamos National Laboratory,
Mail Stop P365,
P.O. Box 1663,
Los Alamos, NM 87545
e-mail: saandrews@lanl.gov
Los Alamos National Laboratory,
Mail Stop P365,
P.O. Box 1663,
Los Alamos, NM 87545
e-mail: saandrews@lanl.gov
Andrew M. Fraser
Verification and Analysis (XCP-8),
Los Alamos National Laboratory,
Mail Stop F644,
P.O. Box 1663,
Los Alamos, NM 87545
e-mail: afraser@lanl.gov
Los Alamos National Laboratory,
Mail Stop F644,
P.O. Box 1663,
Los Alamos, NM 87545
e-mail: afraser@lanl.gov
1Corresponding author.
Manuscript received July 30, 2018; final manuscript received May 3, 2019; published online June 18, 2019. Assoc. Editor: Tao Xing.The United States Government retains, and by accepting the article for publication, the publisher acknowledges that the United States Government retains, a nonexclusive, paid-up, irrevocable, worldwide license to publish or reproduce the published form of this work, or allow others to do so, for United States government purposes.
J. Verif. Valid. Uncert. Mar 2019, 4(1): 011002 (15 pages)
Published Online: June 18, 2019
Article history
Received:
July 30, 2018
Revised:
May 3, 2019
Citation
Andrews, S. A., and Fraser, A. M. (June 18, 2019). "Estimating Physics Models and Quantifying Their Uncertainty Using Optimization With a Bayesian Objective Function." ASME. J. Verif. Valid. Uncert. March 2019; 4(1): 011002. https://doi.org/10.1115/1.4043807
Download citation file:
Get Email Alerts
Cited By
A Validation Study on Dynamic Response and Failure Analysis of Large Unconfined Pipes Under Localized Blast Loading Using an Explicit Dynamic Approach
J. Verif. Valid. Uncert (December 2024)
A Curved Surface Integral Method for Reliability Analysis of Multiple Failure Modes System With Nonoverlapping Failure Domains
J. Verif. Valid. Uncert (June 2024)
Solution Verification of Anomalous Waves in Nonideal Gases
J. Verif. Valid. Uncert (September 2024)
Related Articles
Semi-Analytic Probability Density Function for System Uncertainty
ASME J. Risk Uncertainty Part B (December,2016)
An Approach for Testing Methods for Modeling Uncertainty
J. Mech. Des (September,2006)
Posterior Covariance Matrix Approximations
J. Verif. Valid. Uncert (March,2024)
A Bayesian Approach to Reliability-Based Optimization With Incomplete Information
J. Mech. Des (July,2006)
Related Proceedings Papers
Related Chapters
Performance-Based Expert Judgement Weighting Using Moment Methods (PSAM-0264)
Proceedings of the Eighth International Conference on Probabilistic Safety Assessment & Management (PSAM)
PSA Level 2 — NPP Ringhals 2 (PSAM-0156)
Proceedings of the Eighth International Conference on Probabilistic Safety Assessment & Management (PSAM)
On the Exact Analysis of Non-Coherent Fault Trees: The ASTRA Package (PSAM-0285)
Proceedings of the Eighth International Conference on Probabilistic Safety Assessment & Management (PSAM)