The increasing demands on jet engines require progressive thermodynamic process parameters, which typically lead to higher aerothermal loadings and accordingly to designs with high complexity. State-of-the-art high-pressure turbine (HPT) nozzle guide vane (NGV) design involves vane profiles with three-dimensional features including a high amount of film cooling and profiled endwalls (PEWs). Typically, the specific mass flow, also called capacity, which governs the engine's operation, is set by the HPT NGV. Hence, geometric variations due to manufacturing scatter of the HPT NGV's passage can affect relevant aerodynamic quantities and the entire engine behavior. Within the traditional deterministic design approach, the influences of those geometric variations are covered by conservative assumptions and engineering experience. This paper addresses the consideration of variability due to the manufacturing of HPT NGVs through probabilistic CFD investigations. To establish a statistical database, 80 HPT NGVs are digitized with a high precision optical 3D scanning system to record the outer geometry. The vane profiles are parametrized by a section-based approach. For this purpose, traditional profile theory is combined with a novel method that enables the description of NGV profile variability taking the particular leading edge (LE) shape into account. Furthermore, the geometric variability of PEWs is incorporated by means of principle component analysis (PCA). On this basis, a probabilistic system assessment including a sensitivity analysis in terms of capacity and total pressure loss coefficient is realized. Sampling-based methods are applied to conduct a variety of 3D CFD simulations for a typical population of profile and endwall geometries. This probabilistic investigation using realistic input parameter distributions and correlations contributes to a robust NGV design in terms of relevant aerodynamic quantities.

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