This paper presents a mathematical model for predicting the rate of turbulent spot production. In this model, attached- and separated-flow transition are treated in a unified manner, and the boundary layer shape factor is identified as the parameter with which the spot production rate correlates. The model is supplemented by several correlations to allow for its practical use in the prediction of the length of the transition zone. Second, the paper presents a model for the prediction of the location of transition inception in separation bubbles. The model improves on the accuracy of existing alternatives, and is the first to account for the effects of surface roughness.

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