A predictive pitting model for estimating failure probabilities and service lives has been developed. This paper presents the failure probability analysis and a discussion of the model’s application to spur gears. Probability estimates are based on an initial crack size distribution and on possible interaction between cracks and inclusions. Plots of the fraction of components experiencing pitting (percent) versus life show less spread than would be expected. However, trends predicted based on parametric variation are consistent with service behavior. The model is applied by linking the pitting model with a spur gear performance code. Results are compared with AGMA standards.

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