A direct methodology for intra-day forecasts (1–6 h ahead) of power output (PO) from photovoltaic (PV) solar plants is proposed. The forecasting methodology uses publicly available images from geosynchronous satellites to predict PO directly without resorting to intermediate irradiance (resource) forecasting. Forecasts are evaluated using four years (January 2012–December 2015) of hourly PO data from 2 nontracking, 1 MWp PV plants in California. For both sites, the proposed methodology achieves forecasting skills ranging from 24% to 69% relative to reference persistence model results, with root-mean-square error (RMSE) values ranging from 90 to 136 kW across the studied horizons. Additionally, we consider the performance of the proposed methodology when applied to imagery from the next generation of geosynchronous satellites, e.g., Himawari-8 and geostationary operational environmental satellite (GOES-R).
Skip Nav Destination
Article navigation
April 2018
Research-Article
Direct Power Output Forecasts From Remote Sensing Image Processing
David P. Larson,
David P. Larson
Mem. ASME
Department of Mechanical and
Aerospace Engineering,
Jacobs School of Engineering,
University of California,
San Diego, La Jolla, CA 92093-0411
e-mail: dplarson@ucsd.edu
Department of Mechanical and
Aerospace Engineering,
Jacobs School of Engineering,
University of California,
San Diego, La Jolla, CA 92093-0411
e-mail: dplarson@ucsd.edu
Search for other works by this author on:
Carlos F. M. Coimbra
Carlos F. M. Coimbra
Professor
Mem. ASME
Department of Mechanical and
Aerospace Engineering,
Jacobs School of Engineering,
University of California,
San Diego, La Jolla, CA 92093-0411
e-mail: ccoimbra@ucsd.edu
Mem. ASME
Department of Mechanical and
Aerospace Engineering,
Jacobs School of Engineering,
University of California,
San Diego, La Jolla, CA 92093-0411
e-mail: ccoimbra@ucsd.edu
Search for other works by this author on:
David P. Larson
Mem. ASME
Department of Mechanical and
Aerospace Engineering,
Jacobs School of Engineering,
University of California,
San Diego, La Jolla, CA 92093-0411
e-mail: dplarson@ucsd.edu
Department of Mechanical and
Aerospace Engineering,
Jacobs School of Engineering,
University of California,
San Diego, La Jolla, CA 92093-0411
e-mail: dplarson@ucsd.edu
Carlos F. M. Coimbra
Professor
Mem. ASME
Department of Mechanical and
Aerospace Engineering,
Jacobs School of Engineering,
University of California,
San Diego, La Jolla, CA 92093-0411
e-mail: ccoimbra@ucsd.edu
Mem. ASME
Department of Mechanical and
Aerospace Engineering,
Jacobs School of Engineering,
University of California,
San Diego, La Jolla, CA 92093-0411
e-mail: ccoimbra@ucsd.edu
1Corresponding author.
Contributed by the Solar Energy Division of ASME for publication in the JOURNAL OF SOLAR ENERGY ENGINEERING: INCLUDING WIND ENERGY AND BUILDING ENERGY CONSERVATION. Manuscript received June 5, 2017; final manuscript received December 14, 2017; published online February 20, 2018. Assoc. Editor: Geoffrey T. Klise.
J. Sol. Energy Eng. Apr 2018, 140(2): 021011 (8 pages)
Published Online: February 20, 2018
Article history
Received:
June 5, 2017
Revised:
December 14, 2017
Citation
Larson, D. P., and Coimbra, C. F. M. (February 20, 2018). "Direct Power Output Forecasts From Remote Sensing Image Processing." ASME. J. Sol. Energy Eng. April 2018; 140(2): 021011. https://doi.org/10.1115/1.4038983
Download citation file:
Get Email Alerts
Theoretical Analysis and Photothermal Experimental Study of a Segmented Specular Reflection Solar Concentrator
J. Sol. Energy Eng (June 2024)
Related Articles
Comparative Performance and Model Agreement of Three Common Photovoltaic Array Configurations
J. Sol. Energy Eng (February,2018)
Vertical Farms With Integrated Solar Photovoltaics
J. Sol. Energy Eng (February,2022)
Effect of 1,8-Diiodooctane on the Performance of P3HT:PCBM Solar Cells
J. Sol. Energy Eng (June,2015)
Realization of an Inexpensive Embedded Mini-Datalogger for Measuring and Controlling Photovoltaic System
J. Sol. Energy Eng (April,2015)
Related Proceedings Papers
Related Chapters
Integration of Solar Energy Systems
Handbook of Integrated and Sustainable Buildings Equipment and Systems, Volume I: Energy Systems
Mass Data Processing Optimization on High Energy Physics Experiments
International Conference on Advanced Computer Theory and Engineering, 4th (ICACTE 2011)
Development of Nuclear Boiler and Pressure Vessels in Taiwan
Global Applications of the ASME Boiler & Pressure Vessel Code