This paper presents a comparative study in predicting the monthly average solar radiation for Darwin, Australia (latitude 12.46 deg S longitude 130.84 deg E). The city of Darwin, Northern Territory (NT), has the highest and most consistent sunshine duration among all the other Australian states. This unique climate presents an opportunity for photovoltaic (PV) applications. Reliable and accurate predictions of solar radiation enable potential site locations, which exhibit high solar radiations and sunshine hours, to be identified for PV installation. Three predictive models were investigated in this study—the linear regression (LR), Angstrom–Prescott–Page (APP), and the artificial neural network (ANN) models. The mean global solar radiation coupled with the climate data (mean minimum and maximum temperatures, mean rainfall, mean evaporation, and sunshine fraction) obtained from the Australian Bureau of Meteorology (BoM) formed the basis of the dataset. Using simple and easily obtainable climate data presents an added advantage by reducing model complexity. Predictive results showed the root mean square errors (RMSEs) obtained were 6.72%, 13.29%, and 8.11% for the LR, APP, and ANN models, respectively. The predicted solar exposure from the LR model was then compared with the satellite-derived data to assess the accuracy of the LR method.

References

References
1.
Angstrom
,
A.
, 1924, “
Solar and Terrestrial Radiation
,”
Q. J. R. Meteorol. Soc.
,
50
, pp.
121
125
.
2.
Yohanna
,
J. K.
,
Itodo
,
I. N.
, and
Umogbai
,
V. I.
, 2011, “
A Model for Determining the Global Solar Radiation for Makurdi, Nigeria
,”
Renewable Energy
,
36
, pp.
1989
1992
.
3.
Bahel
,
V.
,
Srinivasan
,
R.
, and
Bakhsh
,
H.
, 1986, “
Solar Radiation for Dhahran, Saudi Arabia
,”
Energy
,
11
, pp.
985
989
.
4.
Liu
,
X.
,
Mei
,
X.
,
Li
,
Y.
,
Porter
,
J. R.
,
Wang
,
Q.
, and
Zhang
,
Y.
, 2010, “
Choice of the Angstrom-Prescott Coefficients: Are Time-Dependent Ones Better Than Fixed Ones in Modelling Global Solar Irradiance?
,”
Energy Convers. Manage.
,
51
, pp.
2565
2574
.
5.
Iziomon
,
M. G.
, and
Mayer
,
H.
, 2002, “
Assessment of Some Global Solar Radiation Parameterizations
,”
J. Atmos. Sol.-Terr. Phys.
,
64
, pp.
1631
1643
.
6.
Trnka
,
M.
,
Zalud
,
Z.
,
Eitzinger
,
J.
, and
Dubrovsky
,
M.
, 2005, “
Global Solar Radiation in Central European Lowlands Estimated by Various Empirical Formulae
,”
Agric. Forest Meteorol.
,
131
, pp.
54
76
.
7.
Podesta
,
G. P.
,
Nunez
,
L.
,
Villanueva
,
C. A.
, and
Skansi
,
M. A.
, 2004, “
Estimating Daily Solar Radiation in the Argentine Pampas
,”
Agric. Forest Meteorol.
,
123
, pp.
41
53
.
8.
Chen
,
R. S.
,
Ersi
,
K.
,
Yang
,
J. P.
,
Lu
,
S. H.
, and
Zhao
,
W. Z.
, 2004, “
Validation of Five Global Radiation Models With Measured Daily Data in China
,”
Energy Convers. Manage.
,
45
, pp.
1759
1769
.
9.
Glover
,
J.
, and
McCullogh
,
J. S. G.
, 1958, “
The Empirical Relation Between Solar Radiation and Hours of Sunshine
,”
Q. J. R. Meteorol. Soc.
,
84
, pp.
172
175
.
10.
Halouani
,
N.
,
Nguyen
,
C. T.
, and
Vo-Ngoc
,
D.
, 1993, “
Calculation of Monthly Average Global Solar Radiation on Horizontal Surfaces Using Daily Hours of Bright Sunshine
,”
Sol. Energy
,
50
, pp.
247
248
.
11.
Ojosu
,
J. O.
, and
Komolafe
,
L. K.
, 1987, “
Models for Estimating Solar Radiation Availability in South Western Nigeria
,”
Niger. J. Sol. Energy
,
6
, pp.
69
77
.
12.
Ododo
,
J. C.
,
Sulaiman
,
A. T.
,
Aidan
,
J.
,
Yguda
,
M. M.
, and
Ogbu
,
F. A.
, 1995, “
The Importance of Maximum Air Temperature in the Parameterisation of Solar Radiation in Nigeria
,”
Renewable Energy
,
6
, pp.
751
763
.
13.
Garg
,
H. P.
, and
Garg
,
S. T.
, 1982, “
Prediction of Global Solar Radiation From Bright Sunshine Hours and Other Meteorological Parameters
,” Solar-India,
Proceedings of the National Solar Energy Conservation
,
Allied Publishers
,
New Delhi
, pp.
1004
1007
.
14.
Akinoglu
,
B. G.
, and
Ecevit
,
A.
, 1990, “
A Further Comparison and Discussion of Sunshine Based Models to Estimate Global Solar Radiation
,”
Sol. Energy
,
15
, pp.
865
872
.
15.
Ulgen
,
K.
, and
Hepbasli
,
A.
, 2004, “
Solar Radiation Models. Part 2: Comparison and Developing New Models
,”
Energy Sources
,
26
, pp.
521
530
.
16.
Liu
,
X. Y.
,
Mei
,
X. R.
,
Li
,
Y. Z.
,
Zhang
,
Y. Q.
,
Wang
,
Q. S.
,
Jensen
,
F. R.
, and
Porter
,
J. R.
, 2009, “
Calibration of the Angstrom–Prescott Coefficients (a, b) Under Different Time-Scales and Their Impacts in Estimating Global Solar Radiation in the Yellow River Basin
,”
Agric. Forest Meteorol.
,
149
, pp.
697
710
.
17.
Rehmana
,
S.
, and
Mohandes
,
M.
, 2008, “
Artificial Neural Network Estimation of Global Solar Radiation Using Air Temperature and Relative Humidity
,”
Energy Policy
,
36
, pp.
571
576
.
18.
Mubiru
,
J.
, and
Banda
,
E. J. K. B.
, 2007, “
Estimation of Monthly Average Daily Global Solar Irradiation Using Artificial Neural Networks
,”
Sol. Energy
,
82
, pp.
1
7
.
19.
Alam
,
S.
, 2006, “
Computation of Beam Solar Radiation at Normal Incidence Using Artificial Neural Network
,”
Renewable Energy
,
31
, pp.
1483
1491
.
20.
Lam
,
J. C.
,
Wan
,
K. K. W.
, and
Yang
,
L.
, 2008, “
Solar Radiation Modeling Using ANNs for Different Climates in China
,”
Energy Convers. Manage.
,
49
, pp.
1
11
.
21.
Koca
,
A.
,
Oztop
,
H. F.
,
Varol
,
Y.
, and
Koca
,
G. O.
, 2011, “
Estimation of Solar Radiation Using Artificial Neural Networks With Different Input Parameters for Mediterranean Region of Anatolia in Turkey
,”
Expert Sys. Applic.
,
38
, pp.
8756
8762
.
22.
Lu
,
N.
,
Qin
,
J.
,
Yang
,
K.
, and
Sun
,
J.
, 2011, “
A Simple and Efficient Algorithm to Estimate Daily Global Solar Radiation From Geostationary Satellite Data
,”
Energy
,
36
, pp.
3179
3188
.
23.
Elminir
,
H. K.
,
Azzam
,
Y. A.
, and
Younes
,
F. I.
, 2007, “
Prediction of Hourly and Daily Diffuse Fraction Using Neural Network, as Compared to Linear Regression Models
,”
Energy
,
32
, pp.
1513
1523
.
24.
Ahmad
,
M. J.
, and
Tiwari
,
G. N.
, 2011, “
Solar Radiation Models—A Review
,”
Int. J. Energy Res.
,
35
, pp.
271
290
.
25.
Ertekin
,
C.
, and
Yaldiz
,
O.
, 1999, “
Estimation of Monthly Average Daily Global Radiation on Horizontal Surface for Antalya, Turkey
,”
Renewable Energy
,
17
, pp.
95
102
.
26.
Lewis
,
G.
, 1983, “
Estimates of Irradiance Over Zimbabwe
,”
Sol. Energy
,
31
, pp.
609
612
.
27.
El-Metwally
,
M.
, 2004, “
Simple New Methods to Estimate Global Solar Radiation Based on Meteorological Data in Egypt
,”
Atmos. Res.
,
69
, pp.
217
239
.
28.
Togrul
,
I. T.
, and
Onat
,
E.
, 1999, “
A Study for Estimating Solar Radiation in Elazig Using Geographical and Meteorological Data
,”
Energy Convers. Manage.
,
40
, pp.
1577
1584
.
29.
DEWHA (Department of Environment, Water, Heritage and the Arts), 2011, “
Renewable Energy Atlas
,” http://www.environment.gov.au/sustainability/renewable/atlas/index.htmlhttp://www.environment.gov.au/sustainability/renewable/atlas/index.html
30.
Montero
,
G.
,
Escolar
,
J. M.
,
Rodriguez
,
E.
, and
Montengro
,
R.
, 2009, “
Solar Radiation and Shadow Modelling With Adaptive Triangular Meshes
,”
Sol. Energy
,
83
, pp.
998
1012
.
31.
Page
,
J. K.
, 1986,
Prediction of Solar Radiation on Inclined Surfaces
,
D. Reidel Publishing Company
,
Dordrecht, Germany
.
32.
Stine
,
W. B.
, and
Harrigan
,
R. W.
, 1985,
Solar Energy Fundamentals and Design With Computer Applications
,
Wiley
,
New York
.
33.
Yorukoglu
,
M.
, and
Celik
,
A. N.
, 2006, “
A Critical Review on the Estimation of Daily Global Solar Radiation From Sunshine Duration
,”
Energy Convers. Manage.
,
47
, pp.
2441
2450
.
34.
Cooper
,
P. I.
, 1969, “
The Absorption of Solar Radiation in Solar Stills
,”
Sol. Energy
,
12
, pp.
313
331
.
35.
Luque
,
A.
, and
Hegedus
,
S.
, 2003,
Handbook of Photovoltaic Science and Engineering
,
Wiley
,
Chichester
.
36.
Soler
,
A.
, and
Gopinathan
,
K. K.
, 1994, “
Estimation of Monthly Mean Hourly Global Radiation for Latitudes in the 1N–81N Range
,”
Sol. Energy
,
52
, pp.
233
239
.
37.
BoM (Bureau of Meteorology), 2011, “
Solar Exposure Archive
,” http://www.bom.gov.au/jsp/awap/solar/index.jsphttp://www.bom.gov.au/jsp/awap/solar/index.jsp
38.
Ahmad
,
M. J.
, and
Tiwari
,
G. N.
, 2009, “
Evaluation and Comparison of Hourly Solar Radiation Models
,”
Int. J. Energy Res.
,
33
, pp.
538
552
.
39.
Sahin
,
A. D.
, 2007, “
A New Formulation for Solar Radiation and Sunshine Duration Estimation
,”
Int. J. Energy Res.
,
31
, pp.
109
118
.
40.
Ulgen
,
K.
, and
Hepbasli
,
A.
, 2002, “
Estimation of Solar Radiation Parameters for Izmir, Turkey
,”
Int. J. Energy Res.
,
26
, pp.
807
823
.
You do not currently have access to this content.