In this paper, multivariate time series models were built to predict the power ramp rates of a wind farm. The power changes were predicted at 10 min intervals. Multivariate time series models were built with data-mining algorithms. Five different data-mining algorithms were tested using data collected at a wind farm. The support vector machine regression algorithm performed best out of the five algorithms studied in this research. It provided predictions of the power ramp rate for a time horizon of 10–60 min. The boosting tree algorithm selects parameters for enhancement of the prediction accuracy of the power ramp rate. The data used in this research originated at a wind farm of 100 turbines. The test results of multivariate time series models were presented in this paper. Suggestions for future research were provided.
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e-mail: andrew-kusiak@uiowa.edu
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August 2009
Research Papers
Prediction of Wind Farm Power Ramp Rates: A Data-Mining Approach
Haiyang Zheng,
Haiyang Zheng
Department of Mechanical and Industrial Engineering, 3131 Seamans Center,
University of Iowa
, Iowa City, IA 52242-1527
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Andrew Kusiak
Andrew Kusiak
Department of Mechanical and Industrial Engineering, 3131 Seamans Center,
e-mail: andrew-kusiak@uiowa.edu
University of Iowa
, Iowa City, IA 52242-1527
Search for other works by this author on:
Haiyang Zheng
Department of Mechanical and Industrial Engineering, 3131 Seamans Center,
University of Iowa
, Iowa City, IA 52242-1527
Andrew Kusiak
Department of Mechanical and Industrial Engineering, 3131 Seamans Center,
University of Iowa
, Iowa City, IA 52242-1527e-mail: andrew-kusiak@uiowa.edu
J. Sol. Energy Eng. Aug 2009, 131(3): 031011 (8 pages)
Published Online: July 9, 2009
Article history
Received:
August 10, 2008
Revised:
March 6, 2009
Published:
July 9, 2009
Citation
Zheng, H., and Kusiak, A. (July 9, 2009). "Prediction of Wind Farm Power Ramp Rates: A Data-Mining Approach." ASME. J. Sol. Energy Eng. August 2009; 131(3): 031011. https://doi.org/10.1115/1.3142727
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