This paper examines and compares regression and artificial neural network models used for the estimation of wind turbine power curves. First, characteristics of wind turbine power generation are investigated. Then, models for turbine power curve estimation using both regression and neural network methods are presented and compared. The parameter estimates for the regression model and training of the neural network are completed with the wind farm data, and the performances of the two models are studied. The regression model is shown to be function dependent, and the neural network model obtains its power curve estimation through learning. The neural network model is found to possess better performance than the regression model for turbine power curve estimation under complicated influence factors.

1.
Joensen, A., Madsen, H., and Nielsen, T. S., 1997, “Non-Parametric Statistical Methods for Wind Power Prediction,” presented at EWEC’97, Dublin, Denmark.
2.
Landberg, L., 1997, “A Mathematical Look at a Physical Power Prediction Model,” presented at EWEC’97, Dublin, Denmark.
3.
Kariniotakis
,
G. N.
,
Stavrakakis
,
G. S.
, and
Nogaret
,
E. F.
,
1996
, “
Wind Power Forecasting using Advanced Neural Networks Models
,”
IEEE Trans. on Energy Conversion
,
11
, No.
4
, pp.
762
767
.
4.
Bossanyi, E. A., 1985, “Stochastic Wind Prediction for Wind Turbine System Control,” Proc. of 7th British Wind Energy Association Conf. Oxford, U.K., pp. 219–226.
5.
Li, S., O’Hair, E., and Giesselmann, M., 1997, “Using neural networks to predict wind power generation,” Proc. of Int. Solar Energy Conf. Washington D.C., pp. 415–420.
6.
Walker, J. F., and Jenkins, N., 1997, Wind Turbine Technology, John Wiley & Sons.
7.
American Wind Energy Association, 1988, “Standard Performance Testing of Wind Energy Conversion Systems,” AWEA Standard, AWEA 1.1.
8.
Frost, W., and Aspliden, C., 1995, “Characteristics of the Wind,” in Wind Turbine Technology, David A. Spera (ed.), ASME Press, pp. 371–445.
9.
Krause
,
P. C.
, and
Man
,
D. T.
,
1981
, “
Dynamic Behavior of a Class of Wind Turbine Generators during Electrical Disturbances
,”
IEEE Trans. Power Appar. Syst.
,
PAS-100
, No.
5
, pp.
2204
2210
.
10.
Allen, D. M., and Cady, F. B., 1982, Analyzing Experimental Data by Regression, Lifetime Learning Publications.
11.
Draper, N. R., and Smith, H., 1981, Applied Regression Analysis, John Wiley & Sons.
12.
Haykin, S. S., 1994, Neural Networks: A Comprehensive Foundation, Macmillan.
13.
Hush, D. R., and Horne, B., 1993, “Progress in Supervised Neural Networks,” IEEE Signal Process. Mag., pp. 1–38.
14.
Kosmatopoulos
,
E. B.
,
Polycarpou
,
M. M.
,
Christodoulo
,
M. A.
, and
Ioannou
,
P. A.
,
1995
, “
High-Order Neural Network Structures for Identification of Dynamic Systems
,”
IEEE Trans. Neural Netw.
,
6
, No.
2
, pp.
422
431
.
15.
Thimm
,
G.
, and
Fiesler
,
E.
,
1997
, “
High-Order and Multilayer Perception Initialization
,”
IEEE Trans. Neural Netw.
,
8
, No.
2
, pp.
349
359
.
16.
Zhu, H., and Rohwer, R., 1997, “Measurements of Generalisation Based on Information Geometry,” in Mathematics of Neural Networks: Models, Algorithms and Applications, S. W. Ellacott, J. C. Mason, and I. J. Anderson (eds.), pp. 394–398.
17.
Singhal, S., and Wu, L., 1989, “Training Multilayer Perceptrons with the Extended Kalman Filter Algorithm,” in Advances in Neural Information Processing Systems, Morgan Kaufmann, San Mateo, CA, pp. 133–140.
18.
Kumar, V., Grama, A., Gupta, A., and Karypis, G., 1999, Introduction to Parallel Computing, Benjamin/Cummings, pp. 151–196.
19.
Saratchandran, P., Sundararajan, N., and Foo, S., 1996, Parallel Implementations of Backpropagation Neural Networks on Transputers, World Scientific.
20.
Puskorius, G. V., and Feldkamp, L. A., 1991, “Decoupled Extended Kalman Filter Training of Feedforward Layered Networks,” in Proc. of Int. Joint Conf. on Neural Networks, Seattle WA, pp. 771–777.
You do not currently have access to this content.