This paper describes a procedure for estimating weather-adjusted retrofit savings in commercial buildings using ambient-temperature regression models. The selection of ambient temperature as the sole independent regression variable is discussed. An approximate method for determining the uncertainty of savings and a method for identifying the data time scale which minimizes the uncertainty of savings are developed. The appropriate uses of both linear and change-point models for estimating savings based on expected heating and cooling relationships for common HVAC systems are described. A case study example illustrates the procedure.
Ambient-Temperature Regression Analysis for Estimating Retrofit Savings in Commercial Buildings
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Kissock, J. K., Reddy, T. A., and Claridge, D. E. (August 1, 1998). "Ambient-Temperature Regression Analysis for Estimating Retrofit Savings in Commercial Buildings." ASME. J. Sol. Energy Eng. August 1998; 120(3): 168–176. https://doi.org/10.1115/1.2888066
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