Solar radiation and temperature vary during the day. These variations are also subject to “random” fluctuations caused by rapid changes in atmospheric conditions. In this paper a procedure has been developed to model the rate of heat flow through a building wall with consideration given to the stochastic character of the problem. The stochastic method generates outputs that reflect fluctuations in the input variables (and parameters). This enables the analyst to select or design components for specified confidence levels. The validity of the procedure is demonstrated through examples.

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