Economic and thermal performance analyses of typical residential and commercial active solar cooling systems are used to determine cost goals for systems to be installed between the years 1986 and 2000. Market penetration for heating, ventilating, and air conditioning systems depends on payback period, which is related to the expected real return on investment. Postulating a market share for solar cooling systems increasing to 20 percent by the year 2000, payback and return on onvestment goals as a function of year of purchase are established. The incremental solar system cost goal must be equal to or less than the 20-year present value of future energy savings, based on thermal performance analysis, at the desired return on investment. Methods for achieving these cost goals and expected solar cooling system costs will be discussed.

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