Abstract

Deterministic design and a priori parameters are used in traditional optimization approaches. The material characteristics of solid wood are not deterministic in reality. Hence, realistic optimization and simulation methods need to take the uncertainties of parameters into account. The uncertainty characteristics of wood are mainly originated in natural variation. In addition to this, incertitudes from lack of knowledge are inherent. Accordingly, the aleatoric approach of randomness can be expanded to a polymorphic uncertainty model. Fuzzy probability based randomness is used in this work. Therefore, the epistemic approach of fuzziness is taken into account. The distribution functions of random variables are parametrized by fuzzy variables. So coupling of both, aleatoric and epistemic uncertainties, is involved.Interactions of fuzzy variables and crosscorrelations of random variables are considered among and within the parameters. Crosscorrelated random fields are used to represent spatial variation of material parameters. The autocovariance structures are modeled structurally dependent on the tree trunk axes. FEM results are applied as basic solutions of a loaded timber structure. A local orthotropic material formulation with respect to specifically located tree trunk axes is used. The optimal positions of the tree trunk axes for each wooden log are examined as design parameters. Polymorphic uncertainty is used to describe a priori parameters. The developed methods for uncertainty analysis are embedded in an automated and parallelized optimization processing. An analysis of a two-tier glulam beam, according to a purlin of a timber roof construction, is shown as numerical example for the optimization framework.

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