Prediction of the Time to Failure of Boiler Tubes Flawed With Localized Erosion

A failure mechanism prevalent with boiler tubes operating in harsh environmental conditions is localized erosion. The consequence of the erosion mechanism is a substantial reduction of the tube thickness, ultimately leading to plastic collapse and consequently rupturing of the tubes. Locating and repairing all the affected tubes within the boiler are time consuming and expensive. It will be worthwhile to rank all the identified flaws so that critical flaws that cannot survive till the next scheduled shutdown are prioritized for repair. Consequently, nonlinear structural analysis was conducted on various boiler tubes that failed by localized erosion. The tubes had a wide range of localized erosion flaws that required a detailed assessment technique. The failure was evaluated numerically using various stress and strain-based failure criteria as well as performing the American Petroleum Institute and the American Society of Mechanical Engineers (API-ASME) fitness-for-service (FFS) assessment on the tubes. A projected time to failure (⁠$Pt$⁠) for each tube based on the various criteria used in this study was determined. This enabled the ranking of the flawed tubes based on the priority of their repair. The outcome of this study demonstrates the potential for a tool which will enable industry users to prioritize the replacement or repair of critically flawed tubes and avert replacing tubes that are still safe for future operation.