To apply a probabilistic fracture mechanics (PFM) analysis to the structural integrity assessment of a reactor pressure vessel (RPV), a PFM analysis code has been developed at JAEA. Using this PFM analysis code, pascal version 3, the conditional probabilities of crack initiation (CPIs) and fracture for an RPV during pressurized thermal shock (PTS) events have been analyzed. Sensitivity analyses on certain input parameters were performed to clarify their effect on the conditional fracture probability. Comparisons between the conditional probabilities and the temperature margin (ΔTm) based on the current deterministic analysis method were made for various model plant conditions for typical domestic older types of RPVs. From the analyses, a good correlation between ΔTm and the conditional probability of crack initiation was obtained.

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