We outline here a simple approximate method of lifetime prediction for high-temperature, internally pressurized piping components that takes into account the very large scatter present in the creep data for commonly used piping materials. This scatter is so large as to make deterministic methods of life prediction quite problematic. The method presented here is based upon the well-known Monte Carlo technique, and makes use of the standard damage fraction as the basic measure of creep damage. The method yields predictions of the probability of failure after a fixed operating time, assumed to be large.

1.
Garafalo
,
F.
,
Whitmore
,
R. W.
,
Domis
,
W. F.
, and
von Gemmingen
,
F.
, 1961, “
Creep and Creep-Rupture Relationships in an Austenitic Stainless Steel
,”
Trans. Metall. Soc. AIME
0543-5722,
221
, pp.
310
319
.
2.
Farris
,
J. D.
,
Lee
,
J. P.
,
Harlow
,
D. G.
, and
Delph
,
T. J.
, 1990, “
On the Scatter in Creep-Rupture Times
,”
Metall. Trans. A
0360-2133,
21A
, pp.
345
352
.
3.
Nikbin
,
K. M.
,
Yatomi
,
M.
,
Wasmer
,
K.
, and
Webster
,
G. A.
, 2003, “
Probabilistic Analysis of Creep Crack Initiation and Growth in Pipe Components
,”
Int. J. Pressure Vessels Piping
0308-0161,
80
, pp.
585
595
.
4.
Smith
,
G. V.
, 1973, “
Evaluation of the Elevated Temperature Tensile and Creep-Rupture Properties of 12Cr−12Mo
, 1Cr−12Mo, and 114Cr−12Mo−Si Steels,”
ASTM Data Series DS 50
,
American Society for Testing and Materials
,
Philadelphia
.
5.
Smith
,
G. V.
, 1970, “
An Evaluation of the Elevated Temperature Tensile and Creep-Rupture Properties of Wrought Carbon Steel
,”
ASTM Data Series DS 11S1
,
American Society for Testing and Materials
,
Philadelphia
.
6.
Kraus
,
H.
, 1980,
Creep Analysis
,
Wiley
,
New York
.
7.
Littell
,
R. C.
,
Milliken
,
G. A.
,
Stroup
,
W. W.
,
Wolfinger
,
R. D.
, and
Schabenberger
,
O.
, 2006,
SAS for Mixed Models
,
2nd ed.
,
SAS Publishing
,
Cary, NC
.
8.
Evans
,
M.
, and
Ward
,
A. R.
, 2000, “
Statistical and Probabilistic Modelling of Uniaxial Creep Life of a Ti-6246 Alloy
,”
Mat. Sci. Technol.
1001-0181,
16
, pp.
1149
1157
.
9.
Haldar
,
A.
, and
Mahadevan
,
S.
, 2000,
Probability, Reliability, and Statistical Methods in Engineering Design
,
Wiley
,
New York
.
10.
ASME Boiler and Pressure Vessel Code
, Section III, Div. 1, Subsection NH,
American Society of Mechanical Engineers
,
New York
.
You do not currently have access to this content.