Statistical models for calculating age-dependent component failure rates and system unavailabilities have been combined into a flexible procedure to forecast trends in tubular pressure part forced outage rates for fossil boilers as a function of their ages. These models have been computerized, and the forecasting procedure has been applied to predicting trends at six fossil units of a specific utility. The analytic procedure is described, and its application to the example study is discussed.
Statistical Forecasting of Trends in Tubular Pressure Part Forced Outage Rates for Fossil Boilers
Gallucci, R. H. V., Moelling, D. S., and Talbot, K. P. (February 1, 1988). "Statistical Forecasting of Trends in Tubular Pressure Part Forced Outage Rates for Fossil Boilers." ASME. J. Pressure Vessel Technol. February 1988; 110(1): 91–96. https://doi.org/10.1115/1.3265574
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