This paper deals with statistical and modeling uncertainty on the estimation of long-term extrapolated extreme responses in a monopile offshore wind turbine. The statistical uncertainty is addressed by studying the effect of simulation length. Modeling uncertainty is explored by evaluating the effects of considering a rigid and flexible foundation. The soil's flexibility is taking into account by considering the improved apparent fixity method. To identify the most relevant environmental conditions, the modified environmental contour method is used.

The analysis focuses on the fore-aft shear force (FASF) and the fore-aft bending moment (FABM) at the mudline. The results show that using a simulation length of 10-min, does not provide sufficient accuracy. It was found that for the FASF, simulation lengths of at least 30-min are required to achieve an accuracy of about +/-5%. For the FABM, it was found that both the extrapolations made with 20-min and 30-min simulations achieved similar levels of accuracy of about 20%. Meanwhile, the results obtained from 10-min simulations reached deviations of about 40%.

Finally, from the comparison made between a rigid and flexible foundation, it was found that the extrapolated responses exhibit maximum deviations up to around 5% and 10% for the FASF and the FABM, respectively. Also, for the FABM, it was observed that the consideration of a flexible foundation causes the critical wind speed to shift from 16.5 m/s (rigid) to 18 m/s (flexible).

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