With the expansion of oil exploration in deep waters, assessing the risks associated with offloading operations becomes essential in preventing accidents that may cause huge environmental disasters. In this paper, the system that composed of a turret-moored floating production storage and offloading (FPSO) connected to a conventional shuttle tanker, which is assisted by a tug boat to maintain its position during an offloading operation, will be studied. Using environmental data collected over a period of 6 years, from 2004 to 2009, from the Campos Basin in Brazil, the equilibrium positions of the system were calculated, considering its constraints (operational criteria defined by Petrobras) and verifying the stability of those equilibrium points. The hydrodynamic and aerodynamic static forces were calculated using models validated in the literature. Dynamic effects and oscillations are taken into account by adding safety margins to the operational sectors. With this analysis, we calculated the FPSO heading probabilities during an offloading operation and the expected downtime of operation in Campos Basin. We concluded that the downtime of the offloading operation with a conventional shuttle tanker is close to that with a dynamic positioned (DP) shuttle tanker (10% downtime). Furthermore, the results from the stability analysis were used to generate a simplified set of rules to classify the environmental conditions into four classes of operational risk by applying an unbiased decision tree. This method obtains practical rules based on measurements of wind, wave, and current, allowing the operator to quickly evaluate the risk level before starting the operation.

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