Specification of realistic environmental design conditions for marine structures is of fundamental importance to their reliability over time. Design conditions for extreme waves and storm severities are typically estimated by extreme value analysis of time series of measured or hindcast significant wave height, HS. This analysis is complicated by two effects. First, HS exhibits temporal dependence. Second, the characteristics of are nonstationary with respect to multiple covariates, particularly wave direction, and season. We develop directional–seasonal design values for storm peak significant wave height () by estimation of, and simulation under a nonstationary extreme value model for . Design values for significant wave height (HS) are estimated by simulating storm trajectories of HS consistent with the simulated storm peak events. Design distributions for individual maximum wave height (Hmax) are estimated by marginalization using the known conditional distribution for Hmax given HS. Particular attention is paid to the assessment of model bias and quantification of model parameter and design value uncertainty using bootstrap resampling. We also outline existing work on extension to estimation of maximum crest elevation and total extreme water level.
Estimation of Storm Peak and Intrastorm Directional–Seasonal Design Conditions in the North Sea
Contributed by the Ocean, Offshore, and Arctic Engineering Division of ASME for publication in the JOURNAL OF OFFSHORE MECHANICS AND ARCTIC ENGINEERING. Manuscript received April 23, 2014; final manuscript received January 15, 2015; published online February 10, 2015. Assoc. Editor: Arvid Naess.
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Feld, G., Randell, D., Wu, Y., Ewans, K., and Jonathan, P. (April 1, 2015). "Estimation of Storm Peak and Intrastorm Directional–Seasonal Design Conditions in the North Sea." ASME. J. Offshore Mech. Arct. Eng. April 2015; 137(2): 021102. https://doi.org/10.1115/1.4029639
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