Estimation of Storm Peak and Intrastorm Directional–Seasonal Design Conditions in the North Sea

Specification of realistic environmental design conditions for marine structures is of fundamental importance to their reliability over time. Design conditions for extreme waves and storm severities are typically estimated by extreme value analysis of time series of measured or hindcast significant wave height, H_S. This analysis is complicated by two effects. First, H_S exhibits temporal dependence. Second, the characteristics of $HSsp$ are nonstationary with respect to multiple covariates, particularly wave direction, and season. We develop directional–seasonal design values for storm peak significant wave height (⁠$HSsp$⁠) by estimation of, and simulation under a nonstationary extreme value model for $HSsp$⁠. Design values for significant wave height (H_S) are estimated by simulating storm trajectories of H_S consistent with the simulated storm peak events. Design distributions for individual maximum wave height (H_max) are estimated by marginalization using the known conditional distribution for H_max given H_S. Particular attention is paid to the assessment of model bias and quantification of model parameter and design value uncertainty using bootstrap resampling. We also outline existing work on extension to estimation of maximum crest elevation and total extreme water level.