The present paper introduces a general framework for integrity management of offshore steel jacket structures allowing for the risk based planning of inspections and maintenance activities with a joint consideration of various relevant deterioration and damage processes. The suggested approach relates the relevant deterioration and damage processes to damage states, which in turn may be related to the overall integrity of the jacket structural system as measured through the reserve strength ratio. Each state of degradation, irrespective of the cause, can then be assessed in terms of their impact on the annual probability of failure for the structure. Based on data and subjective information regarding the annual probabilities of occurrence of the relevant deterioration and damage processes, together with a probabilistic modeling of the quality of condition control, it is possible to assess the structural effect of each type of deterioration and damage phenomenon. This facilitates the development of a general framework for risk based integrity management. In the present work such a framework is formulated using Bayesian probabilistic networks for evaluating the time varying global structural reliability of jackets subject to progressive deterioration of its members due to the combined effect of different sources of damage. In principle, system effects, i.e., the effect of damage in one element of the structural system on the capacity of other elements, can also be accounted for through a Bayesian probabilistic net; however, this is not considered in this work.
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February 2009
Safety And Reliability
Risk Based Structural Integrity Management of Marine Platforms Using Bayesian Probabilistic Nets
Roberto Montes-Iturrizaga,
Roberto Montes-Iturrizaga
Instituto Mexicano del Petróleo
, Eje Central Lázaro Cárdenas No. 152, Mexico, DF 07730, Mexico
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Ernesto Heredia-Zavoni,
Ernesto Heredia-Zavoni
Instituto Mexicano del Petróleo
, Eje Central Lázaro Cárdenas No. 152, Mexico, DF 07730, Mexico
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Francisco Vargas-Rodríguez,
Francisco Vargas-Rodríguez
Instituto Mexicano del Petróleo
, Eje Central Lázaro Cárdenas No. 152, Mexico, DF 07730, Mexico
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Michael Havbro Faber,
Michael Havbro Faber
Swiss Federal Institute of Technology
, ETH Hönggerberg, CH-8093 Zürich, Switzerland
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Daniel Straub,
straub@matrisk.com
Daniel Straub
Matrisk GmbH
, CH-8093 Zürich, Switzerland
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Juan de Dios de la O
Juan de Dios de la O
Gerencia de Mantenimiento Integral,
PEMEX Exploración y Producción
, Ciudad del Carmen, Campeche CP-24180, Mexico
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Roberto Montes-Iturrizaga
Instituto Mexicano del Petróleo
, Eje Central Lázaro Cárdenas No. 152, Mexico, DF 07730, Mexico
Ernesto Heredia-Zavoni
Instituto Mexicano del Petróleo
, Eje Central Lázaro Cárdenas No. 152, Mexico, DF 07730, Mexico
Francisco Vargas-Rodríguez
Instituto Mexicano del Petróleo
, Eje Central Lázaro Cárdenas No. 152, Mexico, DF 07730, Mexico
Michael Havbro Faber
Swiss Federal Institute of Technology
, ETH Hönggerberg, CH-8093 Zürich, Switzerland
Daniel Straub
Juan de Dios de la O
Gerencia de Mantenimiento Integral,
PEMEX Exploración y Producción
, Ciudad del Carmen, Campeche CP-24180, MexicoJ. Offshore Mech. Arct. Eng. Feb 2009, 131(1): 011602 (10 pages)
Published Online: December 11, 2008
Article history
Received:
October 10, 2006
Revised:
November 9, 2007
Published:
December 11, 2008
Citation
Montes-Iturrizaga, R., Heredia-Zavoni, E., Vargas-Rodríguez, F., Faber, M. H., Straub, D., and de Dios de la O, J. (December 11, 2008). "Risk Based Structural Integrity Management of Marine Platforms Using Bayesian Probabilistic Nets." ASME. J. Offshore Mech. Arct. Eng. February 2009; 131(1): 011602. https://doi.org/10.1115/1.2979797
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