Time-dependent system kinematic reliability of robotic manipulators, referring to the probability of the end-effector’s pose error falling into the specified safe boundary over the whole motion input, is of significant importance for its work performance. However, investigations regarding this issue are quite limited. Therefore, this work conducts time-dependent system kinematic reliability analysis defined with respect to the pose error for robotic manipulators based on the first-passage method. Central to the proposed method is to calculate the outcrossing rate. Given that the errors in robotic manipulators are very small, the closed-form solution to the covariance of the joint distribution of the pose error and its derivative is first derived by means of the Lie group theory. Then, by decomposing the outcrossing event of the pose error, calculating the outcrossing rate is transformed into a problem of determining the first-order moment of a truncated multivariate Gaussian. Then, based on the independent assumption that the outcrossing events occur independently, the analytical formula of the outcrossing rate is deduced for the stochastic kinematic process of robotic manipulators via taking advantage of the moment generating function of the multivariate Gaussian, accordingly leading to achievement of the time-dependent system kinematic reliability. Finally, a 6-DOF robotic manipulator is used to demonstrate the effectiveness of the proposed method by comparison with the Monte Carlo simulation and finite-difference based outcrossing rate method.

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