Parameter estimates in large-scale complex engineered systems (LaCES) affect system evolution, yet can be difficult and expensive to test. Systems engineering uses analytical methods to reduce uncertainty, but a growing body of work from other disciplines indicates that cognitive heuristics also affect decision-making. Results from interviews with expert aerospace practitioners suggest that engineers bias estimation strategies. Practitioners reaffirmed known system features and posited that engineers may bias estimation methods as a negotiation and resource conservation strategy. Specifically, participants reported that some systems engineers “game the system” by biasing requirements to counteract subsystem estimation biases. An agent-based model (ABM) simulation which recreates these characteristics is presented. Model results suggest that system-level estimate accuracy and uncertainty depend on subsystem behavior and are not significantly affected by systems engineers' “gaming” strategy.
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December 2018
Research-Article
Gaming the System: An Agent-Based Model of Estimation Strategies and their Effects on System Performance Available to Purchase
John Meluso,
John Meluso
Global Design Laboratory,
Design Science Program,
University of Michigan,
Ann Arbor, MI 48109
e-mail: [email protected]
Design Science Program,
University of Michigan,
Ann Arbor, MI 48109
e-mail: [email protected]
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Jesse Austin-Breneman
Jesse Austin-Breneman
Global Design Laboratory,
Department of Mechanical Engineering,
University of Michigan,
Ann Arbor, MI 48109
e-mail: [email protected]
Department of Mechanical Engineering,
University of Michigan,
Ann Arbor, MI 48109
e-mail: [email protected]
Search for other works by this author on:
John Meluso
Global Design Laboratory,
Design Science Program,
University of Michigan,
Ann Arbor, MI 48109
e-mail: [email protected]
Design Science Program,
University of Michigan,
Ann Arbor, MI 48109
e-mail: [email protected]
Jesse Austin-Breneman
Global Design Laboratory,
Department of Mechanical Engineering,
University of Michigan,
Ann Arbor, MI 48109
e-mail: [email protected]
Department of Mechanical Engineering,
University of Michigan,
Ann Arbor, MI 48109
e-mail: [email protected]
1Corresponding author.
Contributed by the Design Theory and Methodology Committee of ASME for publication in the JOURNAL OF MECHANICAL DESIGN. Manuscript received August 9, 2017; final manuscript received January 30, 2018; published online September 18, 2018. Assoc. Editor: Katja Holtta-Otto.
J. Mech. Des. Dec 2018, 140(12): 121101 (9 pages)
Published Online: September 18, 2018
Article history
Received:
August 9, 2017
Revised:
January 30, 2018
Citation
Meluso, J., and Austin-Breneman, J. (September 18, 2018). "Gaming the System: An Agent-Based Model of Estimation Strategies and their Effects on System Performance." ASME. J. Mech. Des. December 2018; 140(12): 121101. https://doi.org/10.1115/1.4039494
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