This paper proposes a new methodology for uncertainty quantification in systems that require multidisciplinary iterative analysis between two or more coupled component models. This methodology is based on computing the probability of satisfying the interdisciplinary compatibility equations, conditioned on specific values of the coupling (or feedback) variables, and this information is used to estimate the probability distributions of the coupling variables. The estimation of the coupling variables is analogous to likelihood-based parameter estimation in statistics and thus leads to the proposed likelihood approach for multidisciplinary analysis (LAMDA). Using the distributions of the feedback variables, the coupling can be removed in any one direction without loss of generality, while still preserving the mathematical relationship between the coupling variables. The calculation of the probability distributions of the coupling variables is theoretically exact and does not require a fully coupled system analysis. The proposed method is illustrated using a mathematical example and an aerospace system application—a fire detection satellite.
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e-mail: shankar.sankararaman@vanderbilt.edu
e-mail: sankaran.mahadevan@vanderbilt.edu
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March 2012
Research Papers
Likelihood-Based Approach to Multidisciplinary Analysis Under Uncertainty
Shankar Sankararaman,
Shankar Sankararaman
Graduate Student
ProfessorJohn R. Murray Sr. Chair in Engineering, Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering,
e-mail: shankar.sankararaman@vanderbilt.edu
Vanderbilt University
, VU Station B # 351831, 2301 Vanderbilt Place, Nashville, TN 37235
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Sankaran Mahadevan
Sankaran Mahadevan
ProfessorJohn R. Murray Sr. Chair in Engineering, Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering,
e-mail: sankaran.mahadevan@vanderbilt.edu
Vanderbilt University
, VU Station B # 351831, 2301 Vanderbilt Place, Nashville, TN 37235
Search for other works by this author on:
Shankar Sankararaman
Graduate Student
ProfessorJohn R. Murray Sr. Chair in Engineering, Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering,
Vanderbilt University
, VU Station B # 351831, 2301 Vanderbilt Place, Nashville, TN 37235e-mail: shankar.sankararaman@vanderbilt.edu
Sankaran Mahadevan
ProfessorJohn R. Murray Sr. Chair in Engineering, Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering,
Vanderbilt University
, VU Station B # 351831, 2301 Vanderbilt Place, Nashville, TN 37235e-mail: sankaran.mahadevan@vanderbilt.edu
J. Mech. Des. Mar 2012, 134(3): 031008 (12 pages)
Published Online: March 6, 2012
Article history
Received:
March 28, 2011
Revised:
December 13, 2011
Published:
March 2, 2012
Online:
March 6, 2012
Citation
Sankararaman, S., and Mahadevan, S. (March 6, 2012). "Likelihood-Based Approach to Multidisciplinary Analysis Under Uncertainty." ASME. J. Mech. Des. March 2012; 134(3): 031008. https://doi.org/10.1115/1.4005619
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