To address the need for efficient and unbiased experimental testing of methods for modeling uncertainty that are used for decision making, we devise an approach for probing weaknesses of these methods by running numerical experiments on arbitrary data. We recommend using readily available data recorded in real-life activities, such as competitions, student design projects, medical procedures, or business decisions. Because the generating mechanism and the probability distribution of this data is often unknown, the approach adds dimensions, such as fitting errors and time dependencies of data that may be missing from tests conducted using computer simulations. For an illustration, we tested probabilistic and possibilistic methods using a database of results of a domino tower competition. The experiments yielded several surprising results. First, even though a probabilistic metric of success was used, there was no significant difference between the rates of success of the probabilistic and possibilistic models. Second, the common practice of inflating uncertainty when there is little data about the uncertain variables shifted the decision differently for the probabilistic and possibilistic models, with the latter being counter-intuitive. Finally, inflation of uncertainty proved detrimental even when very little data was available.
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e-mail: haftka@ufl.edu
e-mail: rarosca@ufl.edu
e-mail: enikolai@eng.utoledo.edu
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September 2006
Research Papers
An Approach for Testing Methods for Modeling Uncertainty
Raphael T. Haftka,
Raphael T. Haftka
Mechanical and Aerospace Engineering Department,
e-mail: haftka@ufl.edu
The University of Florida
, 231 MAE-A Building, Gainesville, FL 32611-6250
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Raluca I. Rosca,
Raluca I. Rosca
Mechanical and Aerospace Engineering Department,
e-mail: rarosca@ufl.edu
The University of Florida
, 231 MAE-A Building, Gainesville, FL 32611-6250
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Efstratios Nikolaidis
Efstratios Nikolaidis
Mechanical, Industrial and Manufacturing Engineering,
e-mail: enikolai@eng.utoledo.edu
The University of Toledo
, 4034 Nitschke Hall, Toledo, OH 43606
Search for other works by this author on:
Raphael T. Haftka
Mechanical and Aerospace Engineering Department,
The University of Florida
, 231 MAE-A Building, Gainesville, FL 32611-6250e-mail: haftka@ufl.edu
Raluca I. Rosca
Mechanical and Aerospace Engineering Department,
The University of Florida
, 231 MAE-A Building, Gainesville, FL 32611-6250e-mail: rarosca@ufl.edu
Efstratios Nikolaidis
Mechanical, Industrial and Manufacturing Engineering,
The University of Toledo
, 4034 Nitschke Hall, Toledo, OH 43606e-mail: enikolai@eng.utoledo.edu
J. Mech. Des. Sep 2006, 128(5): 1038-1049 (12 pages)
Published Online: August 10, 2005
Article history
Received:
January 13, 2005
Revised:
August 10, 2005
Citation
Haftka, R. T., Rosca, R. I., and Nikolaidis, E. (August 10, 2005). "An Approach for Testing Methods for Modeling Uncertainty." ASME. J. Mech. Des. September 2006; 128(5): 1038–1049. https://doi.org/10.1115/1.2214738
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