Some Empirical Evidence on Machine Tool Deterioration and its Use in Projecting Machine Tool Requirements

This paper presents the results of research efforts to estimate the rate at which machine tools deteriorate. A relationship between machine tool deterioration based on component wearout “failures,” and the resulting decline in the productivity of the machine is defined and used as an aid in planning machine tool overhauls and replacements. Deterioration rates for 35 different types of machine tools are estimated via regression analysis using data obtained from a survey on the collective experiences and policies of U.S. industries on over 15,000 machine tools. The results show that different types of machine tools deteriorate at significantly different rates. This information is then embodied in a computerized planning model which incorporates product line sales forecasts, current machine utilization patterns, and machine productivity related to deterioration factors. The planning model can assist manufacturing managers by identifying machine tools which are good candidates for further detailed cost-benefit analysis concerning replacement or overhaul.