The movement and distribution of each phase in annular flow can be considered as random events at a microscopic level. Hence, a probability analysis is appropriate to estimate the morphological features and mechanical characteristics of annular flow from a macroscopic scale. In the present work, three characteristic parameters including the film thickness, interfacial shear stress, and characteristic droplet size are predicted by a probability model as the statistical results of abundant samples. The film thickness can be directly calculated as one of the solutions to the basic equations of annular flow. The interfacial shear stress is estimated as a combination of the frictional and dragging components. The droplet size distribution is obtained using a method of undetermined coefficients. These characteristic parameters are well verified by comparing with the experimental data available in the literature. It is demonstrated that the probability model can accurately calculate the film thickness and maximum droplet size, but the predictions of the interfacial shear stress and mean droplet size are relatively coarse. Furthermore, the effects on the film thickness and Sauter mean diameter of other parameters are discussed in detail. Finally, some important phenomena observed in experiments are interpreted by the probability model.

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