A methodology is discussed that allows quantification of uncertainty in the gas turbine design and analysis process. The methodology can be employed to rank order the cost effectiveness of advanced component technologies or alternatively can be used to determine probable performance (sfc and thrust) of engines that have component performance uncertainties. Execution of the methodology requires a desktop computer and commercially available software.

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Aviation Week and Space Technology, Nov. 22, 1993.
Crystal Ball®; Decisioneering Inc., 1380 Lawrence Street, Denver, CO 80204-9849.
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