A methodology is discussed that allows quantification of uncertainty in the gas turbine design and analysis process. The methodology can be employed to rank order the cost effectiveness of advanced component technologies or alternatively can be used to determine probable performance (sfc and thrust) of engines that have component performance uncertainties. Execution of the methodology requires a desktop computer and commercially available software.

Issue Section:
Gas Turbines: Aircraft
Topics:
Design under uncertainty, Gas turbines, Uncertainty, Computer software, Computers, Design, Engines, Thrust
1.
Timson, F. S., “Measurement of Technical Performance in Weapon System Development Programs: A Subjective Probability Approach,” RAND Memorandum RM-5207-ARPA, Dec. 1968.
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Aviation Week and Space Technology, Nov. 22, 1993.
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Crystal Ball®; Decisioneering Inc., 1380 Lawrence Street, Denver, CO 80204-9849.
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 by The American Society of Mechanical Engineers
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