We present a model intended to predict mainly the residential and commercial natural gas consumption in urban areas, for the short and intermediate ranges of time. In the short range, the model has been successfully used to forecast the daily gas consumption of major cities of Argentina. It is able to predict the consumption 1 to 5 days in advance with 10% of uncertainty. In the intermediate range (1 to 5 years), the model allows us to estimate the annual peak consumption, load factors and the optimal transportation capacity for a given region of interest. We also present a novel procedure to obtain the distribution of daily consumption from the monthly consumption obtained from the monthly billing.
Generalized Model of Prediction of Natural Gas Consumption
Contributed by the Advanced Energy Systems Division for publication in the JOURNAL OF ENERGY RESOURCES TECHNOLOGY. Manuscript received at the AES Division April 2002; revised manuscript received November 2003. Associate editor: E. Sciubba.
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Gil, S., and Deferrari, J. (June 22, 2004). "Generalized Model of Prediction of Natural Gas Consumption ." ASME. J. Energy Resour. Technol. June 2004; 126(2): 90–98. https://doi.org/10.1115/1.1739239
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