Inaugural US-EU-China Thermophysics Conference-Renewable Energy 2009 (UECTC 2009 Proceedings)
As clean substitute energy, the commercial development of renewable energy is slow. So this paper tries to deal with this problem from the substitution of renewable energy. Through Lotka-Volterra model, we set evolutionary model of renewable energy market system. And with which we analyze the market evolutionary character aimed on increasing the renewable energy supply. First, based on the rules of increasing the renewable energy supplement and the substitution, we define the evolutionary model of the renewable energy market and its structure. By adding time variable to the Lotka-Volterra model, we improve the basic Lotka-Volterra model, and get the system evolutionary model of the renewable energy market. Secondly, with the mean value method to solve the model, we analyze two kinds of relationships about the evolutionary system: the one is between the supply increase of renewable energy and the shrinking of the non- renewable energy, and the other is among the increment speed of the renewable energy supply, the shrinking of non-renewable energy and its system fluctuation. After the analysis, our reasoning comes down to four deductions which including the limits of the renewable energy supply, the relative independence and the growth in the renewable energy market. Lastly, combining of the above analysis, we discuss the enlightenment of the four corollaries on the industrialization policy of the renewable energy market.