164 Analysis on the Critical Rainfall of Debris Flows Based on the Logistic Regression Model and Antecedent Effective Rainfall

A multidisciplinary approach based on logistic regression and antecedent effective rainfall was adopted in this paper in order to study the very complex phenomenon of rainfall-triggered debris flows. An integrated method for quantitative analysis of critical rainfall has been promoted. And a test of this approach was applied in Xiuyan, Liaoning province. It is very important to do research on the relationship between rainfall and debris flows. But there is no any universal method to calculate the critical rainfall. In this paper, the rainfall of days when debris flows happened or not was collected from rainfall stages. The rainfall samples of safe days were gained through counting ahead. And the most suitable days for analysis of samples were analyzed based on logistic regression model. Experiential value (0.84) and actual value (0.61) were respectively adopted as the effective rainfall coefficient. Through the test good classifying effect of this method was approved.