93 Numerical Analysis of the Stability of Maoping Landslide in Geheyan Reservoir Area of Qingjiang River

Maoping Landslide is a large ancient rock landslide in the region of Geheyan Reservoir of Qingjiang River. Since the filling of the reservoir in April 1993, the deformation of the landslide has become obvious day after day. Base on the deformation measurement data from field investigations and lab tests in 12 years, this paper probes into the deformation characteristics of the landslide and its induced mechanism and analyzes the landslide stability under various engineering conditions by using 3D finite element numerical simulation as well. The stability numerical calculation results show that the landslide is in a latency critical state. It is possible that the landslide might lose its stability and downslide wholly if it meets with intensive rainfall, sharp drop of the reservoir water level, rock fall or earthquake and other triggering factors. Therefore, it is necessary to study the deformation development trend of the landslide with the passage of time, so as to provide scientific evidences for predicting landslide stability and preventing and reducing landslide disasters.