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Proceedings of the Eighth International Conference on Probabilistic Safety Assessment & Management (PSAM)

Editor
Michael G. Stamatelatos
Michael G. Stamatelatos
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Harold S. Blackman
Harold S. Blackman
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ISBN-10:
0791802442
No. of Pages:
2576
Publisher:
ASME Press
Publication date:
2006

One main function of safety indicators of nuclear power plants is the possibility to detect adverse trends before unacceptable performance degradations occur. Therefore trends should be found as early as possible, such that the reason of an adverse trend can be identified and countermeasures may be taken in time. In this paper a novel statistical trend analysis method for these indicators is presented, which allows the automatic detection and the quantification of trends, facilitating a risk-based decision on necessary measures. It is based on Bayesian statistical methods and can be applied to all kinds of indicators. For two generic types of indicators this method was implemented. Tests both with artificial data and different data sets of German operating experience confirm the suitability of this method. It may also be used to demonstrate the effect improvement measures. Based on this method a tool for the detailed analysis of trends was developed, that facilitates the detection of a trends' cause by identifying time intervals, where trends were present and points in times, when a trend started or changed.

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