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Proceedings of the Eighth International Conference on Probabilistic Safety Assessment & Management (PSAM)

Editor
Michael G. Stamatelatos
Michael G. Stamatelatos
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Harold S. Blackman
Harold S. Blackman
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ISBN-10:
0791802442
No. of Pages:
2576
Publisher:
ASME Press
Publication date:
2006

Networks are an important part of the national and international infrastructure: e.g. telecommunication networks, e.g. electric power distribution networks. The objective of the paper is to assess a method for assessing and for improving the reliability of a network including network infrastructure, associated equipment and network services. The method for reliability assessment of the network is developed in a way that the increase of the network under consideration does not require significant (or even unsolvable) increase of the model. The method is applied to several examples of networks consisting of a small number of nodes and a small number of connections between the nodes. As configurations of networks are such that cross-looping exist between failure modes of parts of the system, the modeling of the system is considered carefully in sense that cross-looping is cut at proper places. If the modeling is done in a proper way, the variations of the models of the same system regarding the mode of modeling cross-connections give qualitatively and quantitatively the same results. The comparison of the models and projected efforts for modeling of real electric power networks shows that the method can be used for assessment of their reliability. Detailed results of each of those examples are obtained. The results depend largely on the quality of equipment reliability database and on the suitability of selected probabilistic models that are used for modeling components of the system. Both represent a standpoint for quantification of the model. Several reliability measures apart from network reliability are introduced, such as: reliability increase factors for considered components of the network, which are provided and evaluated, reliability decrease factors for considered components of the network, which are provided and evaluated, fractional contribution for components of the network, reliability increase factors for selected groups of components of the network, reliability decrease factors for selected groups of components of the network, fractional contribution for selected groups of components of the network. These reliability measures give the information about the reliability ranking of components of the network or their groups. The results identify equipment, which is to be carefully maintained in order that the network reliability is not reduced, equipment, which is a candidate for redundancy, as this improves network reliability and a comparison of alternatives and solutions from the viewpoints of reliability and costs.

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