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Proceedings of the Eighth International Conference on Probabilistic Safety Assessment & Management (PSAM)

Michael G. Stamatelatos
Michael G. Stamatelatos
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Harold S. Blackman
Harold S. Blackman
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ASME Press
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Reliability performance criteria for equipment important to safety are often set using a hypothesis-testing approach that disregards the analyst's complete state of knowledge about the reliability parameter. This is an especially acute problem when the evaluation period is too short to obtain a significant amount of equipment-specific data. From the analyst's point of view, false positives are undesirable, as they lead to unnecessary expenditure of resources. The regulator is more concerned with false negatives, of course, which are likely, given limited data and a typical significance level of 0.05. The Bayesian approach outlined in this paper uses the posterior predictive...

Traditional Approach
Limitations of the Traditional Approach
The Bayesian Approach
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