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Proceedings of the Eighth International Conference on Probabilistic Safety Assessment & Management (PSAM)

Editor
Michael G. Stamatelatos
Michael G. Stamatelatos
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Harold S. Blackman
Harold S. Blackman
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ISBN-10:
0791802442
No. of Pages:
2576
Publisher:
ASME Press
Publication date:
2006

When we want to express the uncertainty about the value of a quantity of interest, we can do this by describing a probability distribution for it. Alternatively, we can provide information on the moments of the uncertain quantity, as the probability distribution of an uncertain quantity can be approximated arbitrarily well by describing enough moments for it. When considering the case where the information about the moments is obtained through expert judgment elicitation, we are confronted with the problem of what to do when different experts provide different assessments.

In a previous paper we addressed the problem of what a...

Abstract
Introduction
Combining Subjective Assessments
Performance Based Weighting
Comparing the Models
Conclusions
Acknowledgements
References
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