Proceedings of the Eighth International Conference on Probabilistic Safety Assessment & Management (PSAM)
214 Performance-Based Expert Judgement Weighting Using Moment Methods (PSAM-0264)
Download citation file:
When we want to express the uncertainty about the value of a quantity of interest, we can do this by describing a probability distribution for it. Alternatively, we can provide information on the moments of the uncertain quantity, as the probability distribution of an uncertain quantity can be approximated arbitrarily well by describing enough moments for it. When considering the case where the information about the moments is obtained through expert judgment elicitation, we are confronted with the problem of what to do when different experts provide different assessments.
In a previous paper we addressed the problem of what a...