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Proceedings of the Eighth International Conference on Probabilistic Safety Assessment & Management (PSAM)

Editor
Michael G. Stamatelatos
Michael G. Stamatelatos
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Harold S. Blackman
Harold S. Blackman
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ISBN-10:
0791802442
No. of Pages:
2576
Publisher:
ASME Press
Publication date:
2006

Bayesian belief networks are proving to be a powerful modeling approach in risk analysis. This paper presents a Bayesian method for eliciting expert judgment using a paired comparison method. The conditional probabilities and covariates that result from the elicitation can be used to populate the Bayesian belief networks. The methodology will be illustrated on sample Bayesian belief network for a submarine pipeline application.

Summary/Abstract
Introduction
Bayesian Paired Comparison Approach
Application Example
References
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