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Proceedings of the Eighth International Conference on Probabilistic Safety Assessment & Management (PSAM)
ISBN-10:
0791802442
No. of Pages:
2576
Publisher:
ASME Press
Publication date:
2006
eBook Chapter
213 A Method for Eliciting Expert Judgment to Estimate Probabilities in a Bayesian Belief Networks (PSAM-0244)
By
Paul S. Szwed
Paul S. Szwed
U.S. Coast Guard Academy
Department of Management 15 Mohegan Avenue New London, CT 06385
USA
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Page Count:
4
-
Published:2006
Citation
Szwed, PS. "A Method for Eliciting Expert Judgment to Estimate Probabilities in a Bayesian Belief Networks (PSAM-0244)." Proceedings of the Eighth International Conference on Probabilistic Safety Assessment & Management (PSAM). Ed. Stamatelatos, MG, & Blackman, HS. ASME Press, 2006.
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Bayesian belief networks are proving to be a powerful modeling approach in risk analysis. This paper presents a Bayesian method for eliciting expert judgment using a paired comparison method. The conditional probabilities and covariates that result from the elicitation can be used to populate the Bayesian belief networks. The methodology will be illustrated on sample Bayesian belief network for a submarine pipeline application.
Topics:
Probability
Summary/Abstract
Introduction
Bayesian Paired Comparison Approach
Application Example
References
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