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Proceedings of the Eighth International Conference on Probabilistic Safety Assessment & Management (PSAM)

Editor
Michael G. Stamatelatos
Michael G. Stamatelatos
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Harold S. Blackman
Harold S. Blackman
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ISBN-10:
0791802442
No. of Pages:
2576
Publisher:
ASME Press
Publication date:
2006

Constrained noninformative priors, a type of maximum entropy prior, have recently become popular in the risk assessment community for representing uncertainty in a parameter value. In this approach, a best-estimate value is specified, which is taken to be a mean value. A distribution is then found which satisfies this mean constraint, but which is as close as possible otherwise (in the sense of Kullback-Leibler information) to the corresponding Jeffreys noninformative prior. This approach leads to a diffuse prior, which when combined with data in a process of Bayesian updating, produces a posterior that is influenced only weakly by the prior....

Summary/Abstract
Introduction
Applications of the CNI Prior
Variability in the Constraint
The Hierarchical Simulation Approach
Conclusions
References
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