Proceedings of the Eighth International Conference on Probabilistic Safety Assessment & Management (PSAM)
180 Constrained Noninformative Priors with Uncertain Constraints: A Hierarchical Simulation Approach (PSAM-0437)
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Constrained noninformative priors, a type of maximum entropy prior, have recently become popular in the risk assessment community for representing uncertainty in a parameter value. In this approach, a best-estimate value is specified, which is taken to be a mean value. A distribution is then found which satisfies this mean constraint, but which is as close as possible otherwise (in the sense of Kullback-Leibler information) to the corresponding Jeffreys noninformative prior. This approach leads to a diffuse prior, which when combined with data in a process of Bayesian updating, produces a posterior that is influenced only weakly by the prior....