Proceedings of the Eighth International Conference on Probabilistic Safety Assessment & Management (PSAM)
174 Advanced PRA Tool Benchmark for Space System Risk Using the Dynamic Flowgraph Methodology (PSAM-0111)
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This paper discusses ASCA's experience in applying the Dynamic Flowgraph Methodology (DFM) to a case study defined jointly by the NASA Headquarters, Idaho National Laboratory (INL) and ASCA, Inc. This case study serves as a benchmark for comparing advanced Probabilistic Risk Assessment (PRA) tools currently under development.
DFM is an analytical process that was initially demonstrated in pilot Nuclear Regulatory Commission and NASA applications. It combines multi-valued logic modeling/analysis capabilities and time transition modeling that specifically address systems with non-coherent and dynamic features. The deductive analysis module of DFM explores the causality and the temporal behavior of the system model in reverse and generates prime implicants that can be thought of as multi-valued logic equivalent of minimal cut sets across time transitions. On the other hand, the inductive module of DFM follows the causality and the temporal behavior of the system model, and it is capable of producing automated Failure Modes and Effects Analyses (FMEA).
Within the scope of this benchmark study, DFM is being applied in the modeling and analysis of the system demand/time-based characteristics and redundancies, as well as the phased mission risks of the case study. In addition, a new quantification module is being developed to calculate the risk and the uncertainty associated with the prime implicants.