Proceedings of the Eighth International Conference on Probabilistic Safety Assessment & Management (PSAM)
Security: Methods to Evaluate Proliferation Resistance
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The Technology Goals for Generation IV nuclear energy systems highlight Proliferation Resistance and Physical Protection (PR&PP) as one of the four goal areas for Generation IV nuclear technology. Accordingly, an evaluation methodology is being developed by a PR&PP Experts Group. This paper presents a possible approach, which is based on Markov modeling, to the evaluation methodology for Generation IV nuclear energy systems being developed for PR&PP. Using the Markov model, a variety of proliferation scenarios can be constructed and the proliferation resistance measures can be quantified, particularly the probability of detection. To model the system with increased fidelity, the Markov model is further developed to incorporate multiple safeguards approaches in this paper. The approach to the determination of the associated parameters is presented. Evaluations of diversion scenarios for an example sodium fast reactor (ESFR) energy system are used to illustrate the methodology. The Markov model is particularly useful because it can provide the probability density function of the time it takes for the effort to be detected at a specific stage of the proliferation effort.