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Proceedings of the Eighth International Conference on Probabilistic Safety Assessment & Management (PSAM)

Michael G. Stamatelatos
Michael G. Stamatelatos
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Harold S. Blackman
Harold S. Blackman
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ASME Press
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Safety is the paramount aim of Air Traffic Management (ATM). In the coming 15 years, technological developments and changes of organisational structures and human roles within the ATM system will transform the nature of the safety problems that must be addressed [1]. These changes include in particular:

• The traffic growth;

• The rapidly changing ATM technology with increasing complexity, automation, integration and interdependency;

• The changes in the organisation of ATM related to by the Single European Sky;

• The efforts expended on safety by other aviation partners;

• The public perception of risk that is related to social and environmental changes within Europe.

ATM safety will be challenged by the changes not only in absolute numbers of potential accidents but also in the change of the nature of potential accidents. Current safety methodologies and safety management approaches need to be adapted to meet the change in the nature of future risks. An explicit and integrated safety approach needs to be established in order to assure the safety of the future ATM system. This approach also needs to be proactive to assure an innovative development of safety and safety concepts.

However safety is currently treated rather reactive. This means that, safety issues are investigated relatively late in the design process of a system and then in a ‘hindsight’ manner. A common approach for proactive assessment and retrospective analysis is able to overcome this position and to develop a proactive safety approach. One problem of a proactive approach is to get the concept designers considering safety already in their very early conceptions of a system. To facilitate this approach, EUROCONTROL developed the so-called safety fundamentals. They provide an early input in screening system developments regarding safety and attempt to bridge the gap between safety considerations in early design phases and detailed safety assessments of concepts being implemented.

The paper will outline the approach of safety fundamentals, the practical use of them in the system development and the challenges regarding cognitive and organizational issues identified as important for the future ATM systems.

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