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Proceedings of the Eighth International Conference on Probabilistic Safety Assessment & Management (PSAM)

Editor
Michael G. Stamatelatos
Michael G. Stamatelatos
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Harold S. Blackman
Harold S. Blackman
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ISBN-10:
0791802442
No. of Pages:
2576
Publisher:
ASME Press
Publication date:
2006

Over the last decade, quantified risk assessment techniques have been increasingly used in making land use and other risk management decisions related to industrial risk due to major accidents involving hazardous substances. Italy was involved in quantitative area risk studies since 1988, when the Italian Department for Civil Protection, together with Regione Emilia Romagna, started the ARIPAR project, aiming at the analysis and the control of the Industrial and Harbour Risks in the Ravenna Area. A by-product of that study was the definition of a methodology for quantitative area risk analysis based on a set of procedures for the assessment of the risk connected with the processing, the storage and the transportation of dangerous substances. The methodology developed in the ARIPAR project was used in a number of quantitative area risk assessment carried out in Italian industrial areas. The ARIPAR methodology was implemented in the software ARIPAR, that allows the calculation of individual and societal risk indexes due to multiple risk sources on an extended area, also taking into account the vulnerability of the population. The ARIPAR software was constantly improved, following the enhancements of the information technology. Several versions have been released since its first development. The current version (4.0) is the result of a recent re-engineering effort of the previous 3.1 version. It is about 30 times faster, due to the use of the C++ language and the consequent optimisation of the data structure. The user interface, based on a low cost Geographic Information System (GIS) platform, has been improved to make the data entry easier and faster. Additional functionalities have also been added to facilitate the data processing and calculations. Further improvements are still under way aiming at enhancing both the methodological aspect, e.g. with the implementation of a module for the quantitative assessment of Domino effects, the development of interpolation functions specifically designed to represent the variation of concentration with position and time, and the user interface with the objective of making ARIPAR fully compatible with commercial software packages for accident consequence analysis. This contribution, after a brief description of the main aspects of the ARIPAR methodology and its applications, is dedicated to the description of the improvements in risk analysis of industrial sites allowed by the new features of the ARIPAR software.

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