Proceedings of the Eighth International Conference on Probabilistic Safety Assessment & Management (PSAM)
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Historically, the probabilistic risk assessment (PRA) community has focused much of its energy on supporting pre-event risk management applications for technical systems. As part of an attempt to identify applications where PRA could better support emergency management, as well as technical obstacles that would need to be addressed to enable such applications, the recent PRA literature and selected emergency management guidance documents have been reviewed. This paper identifies a number of current PRA applications in support of emergency preparedness, response, recovery, reconstitution, and analysis activities. This paper also identifies gaps in PRA applications (e.g., lack of models to address problems in inter-organizational coordination and communication) that are likely to be important obstacles in the development of a fully risk-informed approach to emergency management, and identifies promising work that, upon completion, may be able to address some of these gaps.