Medical image resolution has been a serious limitation in plaque progression research. A modeling approach combining intravascular ultrasound (IVUS) and optical coherence tomography (OCT) was introduced and patient follow-up IVUS and OCT data were acquired to construct three-dimensional (3D) coronary models for plaque progression investigations. Baseline and follow-up in vivo IVUS and OCT coronary plaque data were acquired from one patient with 105 matched slices selected for model construction. 3D fluid–structure interaction (FSI) models based on IVUS and OCT data (denoted as IVUS + OCT model) were constructed to obtain stress/strain and wall shear stress (WSS) for plaque progression prediction. IVUS-based IVUS50 and IVUS200 models were constructed for comparison with cap thickness set as 50 and 200 μm, respectively. Lumen area increase (LAI), plaque area increase (PAI), and plaque burden increase (PBI) were chosen to measure plaque progression. The least squares support vector machine (LS-SVM) method was employed for plaque progression prediction using 19 risk factors. For IVUS + OCT model with LAI, PAI, and PBI, the best single predictor was plaque strain, local plaque stress, and minimal cap thickness, with prediction accuracy as 0.766, 0.838, and 0.890, respectively; the prediction accuracy using best combinations of 19 factors was 0.911, 0.881, and 0.905, respectively. Compared to IVUS + OCT model, IVUS50, and IVUS200 models had errors ranging from 1% to 66.5% in quantifying cap thickness, stress, strain and prediction accuracies. WSS showed relatively lower prediction accuracy compared to other predictors in all nine prediction studies.

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