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ASTM Selected Technical Papers
Uncertainty in Fire Standards and What to Do About It
By
John R. Hall, Jr Jr
John R. Hall, Jr Jr
Symposium Chairman
1
National Fire Protection Association
,
Quincy, MA,
US
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ISBN:
978-0-8031-7527-3
No. of Pages:
196
Publisher:
ASTM International
Publication date:
2012

The SFPE Engineering Guide to Performance-Based Fire Protection defines “uncertainty” as “the amount by which an observed or calculated value might differ from the true value.” In engineering, there are two types of uncertainly: epistemic and aleatory. Epistemic uncertainty is uncertainty due to lack of (complete) knowledge. Aleatory uncertainty is uncertainty due to random variation. At present, no single, widely accepted methodology exists for dealing with uncertainty in fire protection engineering. This paper reviews the sources of uncertainty that are present in fire protection engineering and methods that are used to address them.

1.
SFPE Engineering Guide to Performance-Based Fire Protection
,
National Fire Protection Association
,
Quincy, MA
,
2007
.
2.
Notarianni
,
K.
, and
Parry
,
G.
, “
Uncertainty
,”
SFPE Handbook of Fire Protection Engineering
,
National Fire Protection Association
,
Quincy, MA
,
2008
.
3.
Budnick
,
E.
, “
Automatic Sprinkler System Reliability
,”
Fire Protect. Eng.
, No.
9
,
2001
, p. 7.
4.
Lundin
,
J.
, “
Model Uncertainty in Fire Safety Engineering
,” Report 1020,
Lund Univ.,
Lund, Sweden,
1999
.
5.
SFPE Engineering Guide to Substantiating a Fire Model for a Given Application
,
Society of Fire Protection Engineers
,
Bethesda, MD
,
2011
.
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