Fire Risk Analysis and Assessment for the Canadian Building Code Assessment Framework

The Building Code Assessment Framework (BCAF) is an analytical tool which systematically evaluates changes to the National and Provincial Building Codes in Canada. It is intended to provide strategic advice to code developers. This paper discusses the fire risk analysis and assessment approach that is part of the BCAF. This approach is a strategic one that provides a systematic and rational method for comparing trade-offs between risk changes and incremental costs as a result of code changes. A fire risk analysis event tree provides a structure at a macro level to optimize the use of existing fire statistics and estimates of fire risk event probabilities by a Delphi Panel. The use of both fire statistics and the Delphi Panel in the analysis is described. The use of the Delphi Panel has proven viable and necessary for applying the BCAF to more than 40 changes to the Ontario Building Code (OBC). The results of analyzing a proposed code change to the OBC (mandating of sprinklers in dwellings) are presented. The cost of mandating residential sprinklers per life saved is judged to be prohibitive. The results of this assessment are compared to other studies. This approach to fire risk analysis and assessment use in the BCAF has proven a viable one for the systematic and quantitative assessment of fire risks because of proposed code changes and provides flexibility for incorporating other experimental fire risk analytical models.