A numerical procedure of evaluating the exceedance probabilities of MDOF-systems under non-stationary random excitation is presented. The method is based on a newly developed Controlled Monte Carlo simulation procedure applicable to dynamical systems. It uses “Double and Clump” to assess the low probability domain and employs further intermediate thresholds to increase the efficiency of MCS for estimating first passage probabilities. Applied to a hysteretic type of MDOF-system, the method shows good results when compared with direct MCS.

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