Further study of probabilistic methods for predicting extreme wind turbine loading was performed on two large-scale wind turbine models with stall and pitch regulation. Long-term exceedance probability distributions were calculated using maxima extracted from time series simulations of in-plane and out-of-plane blade loads. It was discovered that using a threshold on the selection of maxima increased the accuracy of the fitted distribution in following the trends of the largest extreme values for a given wind condition. The optimal threshold value for in-plane and out-of-plane blade loads was found to be the mean value plus 1.4 times the standard deviation of the original time series for the quantity of interest. When fitting a distribution to a given data set, the higher-order moments were found to have the greatest amount of uncertainty and also the largest influence on the extrapolated long-term load’s. This uncertainty was reduced by using large data sets, smoothing of the moments between wind conditions and parametrically modeling moments of the distribution. A deterministic turbulence model using the 90th percentile level of the conditional turbulence distribution given mean wind speed was used to greatly simplify the calculation of the long-term probability distribution. Predicted extreme loads using this simplified distribution were equal to or more conservative than the loads predicted by the full integration method.
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ASME 2003 Wind Energy Symposium
January 6–9, 2003
Reno, Nevada, USA
Conference Sponsors:
- ASME
ISBN:
1-56347-594-4
PROCEEDINGS PAPER
Probabilistic Methods for Predicting Wind Turbine Design Loads Available to Purchase
Patrick J. Moriarty,
Patrick J. Moriarty
National Renewable Energy Laboratory, Golden, CO
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William E. Holley,
William E. Holley
Consultant, Pleasanton, CA
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Sandy Butterfield
Sandy Butterfield
National Renewable Energy Laboratory, Golden, CO
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Patrick J. Moriarty
National Renewable Energy Laboratory, Golden, CO
William E. Holley
Consultant, Pleasanton, CA
Sandy Butterfield
National Renewable Energy Laboratory, Golden, CO
Paper No:
WIND2003-864, pp. 235-243; 9 pages
Published Online:
February 4, 2009
Citation
Moriarty, PJ, Holley, WE, & Butterfield, S. "Probabilistic Methods for Predicting Wind Turbine Design Loads." Proceedings of the ASME 2003 Wind Energy Symposium. ASME 2003 Wind Energy Symposium. Reno, Nevada, USA. January 6–9, 2003. pp. 235-243. ASME. https://doi.org/10.1115/WIND2003-864
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