Computational physicists are commonly faced with the task of resolving discrepancies between the predictions of a complex, integrated multi-physics numerical simulation and corresponding experimental datasets. Such efforts commonly require a slow iterative procedure. However, a different approach is available in cases where the multi-physics system of interest admits closed-form analytic solutions. In this situation, the ambiguity is conveniently broken into separate consideration of theory-simulation comparisons (issues of verification) and theory-data comparisons (issues of validation).

We demonstrate this methodology via application to the specific example of a fluid-instability based ejecta source model (“RMI+SSVD”) under development at Los Alamos National Laboratory and implemented in FLAG, a Los Alamos continuum mechanics code. The formalism is conducted in the forward sense (i.e., from source to measurement) and enables us to compute, purely analytically, piezoelectric ejecta mass measurements for a specific class of explosively driven metal coupon experiments. We incorporate published measurement uncertainties on relevant experimental parameters to estimate a time-dependent uncertainty on these analytic predictions. This motivates the introduction of a “compatibility score” metric, our primary tool for quantitative analysis of the RMI+SSVD model.

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