Current aerospace practice follows an engineering model based on damage-tolerant reliability whereby structural components are regularly inspected and replaced. Under this practice, engineering designs are generally based on a physics-based fracture mechanics approach, in which the life of structural component is estimated using an assumed initial damaged condition. However, in a real time environment, keeping track of the damage condition of a complex structural component manually is quite difficult and requires automatic damage state estimation. The real-time damage state information can be regularly fed to a prognosis model to update the residual useful life estimation in event of a new prevailing situation. The present paper discusses the use of an adaptive hybrid prognosis model, which estimates the residual useful life of a structural hotspot using information on the damage condition obtained in real time. The hybrid prognosis model has two modules: an off-line prognosis module that forecasts the future damage state, and an on-line state estimation module, which regularly predicts the current damage state and feeds into the off-line module in real time. Both the off-line and on-line modules are probabilistic models and use the concept of Bayesian inference based on input-output mapping through a Gaussian process.
- Aerospace Division
On-Line Life Prediction of a Structural Hotspot
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Mohanty, S, Chattopadhyay, A, & Peralta, P. "On-Line Life Prediction of a Structural Hotspot." Proceedings of the ASME 2008 Conference on Smart Materials, Adaptive Structures and Intelligent Systems. Smart Materials, Adaptive Structures and Intelligent Systems, Volume 2. Ellicott City, Maryland, USA. October 28–30, 2008. pp. 297-304. ASME. https://doi.org/10.1115/SMASIS2008-646
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